Where will Crude go after market report

Where will Crude go after the Crude Oil Inventories on Wednesday?  There are two potential scenarios that could play out using the higher timeframes to define where Crude will go.

Where Will Crude Go After Inventory Report

The daily Crude Light charts shows the last low was back in August 2016 at about $45.00 (red horizontal line).  On May 5, 2017, this low was tested and rejected with the Stochastics showing divergence on the low (light red lines connecting lows in price and Stochastics).  Price then moved upward to about $52.00, before beginning a new descent.  What is most interesting on the daily Crude chart is that although price is still much higher than the previous low, the Stochastics is going lower (green circle).  This could indicates that price will revert back to the upside.




Crude Daily Chart

The 60 minute is also showing the same pattern — higher low with Stochastics going lower.  The last low on the 60-minute Crude chart is around $46.74.  When price is making higher lows and the Stochastics is making lower lows the pattern is referred to as hidden divergence.  An expectation for price to reverse back to the upside is typical off this pattern.  However, a reversal bar has not formed indicating that the hidden divergence pattern is definitive.  Once the reversal bar is formed, price may break through the prior high at $48.40. If price manages to break through this area prior to the report, then we could see Crude reach up to the $49.250 area.

Where Will Crude Go After Inventory Report

The other scenario is that price fails to break through the prior high and a new low will form, bringing price even closer to the August 2016 low at around $45.00.  If this scenario plays out, then Crude will likely go down after the Crude Oil Inventory Report is released.

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